My big tech trade for 2025: Buy Meta, Sell Apple
If you could pass just one investing lesson to your kids, what would it be? For me, it would be this: own the disruptors, avoid the disrupted.
BlackBerry (BB) investors in 2007 were feeling good. BlackBerries were the hottest mobile device, and the stock gained more than 90% in the previous year. Then Apple released iPhone 1.
Over the next five years, BlackBerry’s market share plummeted from 22% to less than 1%. BB stock got eviscerated, crashing 90%. iPhone, on the other hand, went on to become the best-selling product ever, raking in over $1.5 trillion in sales. It catapulted AAPL stock by 5,000% and turned Apple into the largest company in the world.
Trillion-Dollar Disruption
History is full of such examples. Netflix (NFLX) putting Blockbuster out of business, Google (GOOG) crushing Yahoo’s search engine, Tesla (TSLA) disrupting legacy car makers, and so on.
Another trillion-dollar disruption is happening before our eyes. Meta (META) is about to disrupt Apple (AAPL) big time.
Facebook used to track nearly everything you did on your smartphone. It saw the websites you visit, your Christmas shopping list, your location and travel habits. Its tracking extended far beyond what you did in Facebook’s app. Unethical? Certainly. But great for advertising.
In 2021, Apple put an end to this. It introduced new privacy rules which greatly restricted Facebook’s ability to track users on Apple devices. With one update, the effectiveness of Facebook’s ads tanked. This cost Facebook billions of dollars, and its stock cratered 75%.
Cook has openly criticized Facebook’s data collection practices: “When an online service is free, you’re not the customer. You’re the product.” In another interview, he said Apple believes “privacy is a human right” and that Apple would never “traffic in your personal life” like Facebook does. Zuckerberg responded by calling Cook “ridiculous.” He also accused Apple of storing backups of everyone’s messages on iCloud.
The Rise of Meta
The rivalry peaked in 2020 when Zuckerberg published a two-page ad criticizing Apple in The Wall Street Journal. Four months after the ad was published, Apple released its privacy update, dealing Facebook a crushing blow.
Zuckerberg changed the company’s name to Meta and presented his vision for the metaverse. A core part of this vision are AR glasses. Zuckerberg believes they are the “holy grail” of wearable devices, a bridge between virtual and real worlds.
Meta Ray-Bans are already the #1 selling product in most Ray-Ban stores across the world. Meta’s Orion glasses are fitted with a screen that only shows what you need, when you need it. At your desk? A virtual workspace appears. Walk into a cafe? Instantly see the menu and reviews. Need help fixing your sink? The AI walks you through it, step by step, with a graphic overlay.
Another trillion-dollar disruption is happening before our eyes. Meta (META) is about to disrupt Apple (AAPL) big time.
The Future of Computing
Zuckerberg plans to fix with the new Orion glasses. A decade from now, more people will own Meta’s AI glasses than an iPhone. We won’t all chuck our iPhones in the trash. Smart glasses are a natural fit to become the dominant computing device in the AI age.
Apple, with its innovative AI glasses, has it squarely in its crosshairs. My big tech trade for 2025 and beyond: buy the disruptor, META; sell the disrupted, AAPL.
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