Predictions and probabilities — provocative new reads | CRONIN ...
What happens when you read back-to-back books by a quirky celebrity computer scientist and a quirky celebrity statistician/gambler? You're tempted to consider bigger and riskier bets, and you ask difficult questions about what and who will be determining our future.
I recommend both books. But be prepared for strange new vocabulary, challenging new theories about how our society is being transformed and who and what will be the chief influences on what happens.
"The Singularity is Nearer When We Merge with AI"
Ray Kurzweil, Viking, 2024
Ray Kurzweil is a prize-winning inventor and currently a senior advisor on artificial intelligence for Alphabet/Google. He has written best sellers and is known for successfully predicting rapid breakthroughs in AI.
Kurzweil fully understands the risks of economic and political disruption that will accompany this accelerated change. Jobs will be created, but even more jobs will be displaced. Political anxiety is inevitable. Yet the optimistic Kurzweil predicts humans will adapt, and that new policies, such as universal basic income systems, will provide for those who are displaced.
Kurzweil documents the astonishing technological changes of the past few generations. Technologies such as 3D printers, vertical gardening, driverless cars, containerization, and ChatGPT are changing our lives.
Readers like me will be regularly challenged by Kurzweil's "rich" vocabulary. He explains most of these words, but you may not be ready for the idea of "nanobots" capable of entering your body and carrying out bodily repairs.
Kurzweil is a big believer that new biotechnologies will lead to startling life extension.
Kurzweil uses the word "singularity" to refer to the time when AI and robots will do pretty much whatever humans can do, and perhaps do it even better. He believes we are just a decade or so away from this singularity.
"On the Edge: The Art of Risking Everything"
Nate Silver, Penguin, 2024
Nate Silver studied economics and statistics at the University of Chicago, fell in love with gambling, pioneered sports algorithms and predictive models, became an election analyst and forecaster and is currently balancing a career in news analysis with his passion for gambling.
Silver noticed several of the traits shared by star poker players were also found among talented sports bettors, venture capitalists, start-up founders, and some of the pioneering crypto entrepreneurs.
Silver then moves on to shine a spotlight on Silicon Valley and the tech industry "quants" who have taken big risks and reaped enormous rewards. He interviews founders and venture capitalists, finding they are often contrarian and have the instincts of gamblers.
Silver describes these contrasting elite worlds as the "River People" and the "Village People." The River People embrace risk enthusiastically and hold contrarian and anti-establishment views.
Silver acknowledges the threat AI poses for humanity. He notes the admonition of leading AI entrepreneurs in a 2023 Manifesto: "Mitigating the risk of extinction from AI should be a global priority alongside other societal-scale risks, such as pandemics and nuclear war."
After showing how River People have changed society with their risk-taking, Silver concludes that both River People and Village People need to better understand the exponential changes taking place. They need to invent pluralistic and collaborative ways of maximizing the best possible human benefits of AI and the age of singularity.
