Why Egypt can't and won't open the floodgates from Gaza ...
A potential Israel invasion of the border city of Rafah is complicating Cairo's relationships — especially with the US. Israel’s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is vowing to launch an invasion of Rafah, a city located along the Gaza-Egypt border where more than 1.5 million Palestinians currently shelter.
Egypt's Vulnerability
Egypt’s stakes are extremely high given how much spillover from Gaza into the Sinai Peninsula could be destabilizing. Cairo understandably wants this war to be over immediately. A massive refugee influx into the Sinai from Gaza could result in Palestinians waging an armed resistance against Israel from Egyptian soil — a nightmarish scenario from Cairo’s perspective.
Foreign Policy Challenges
Understanding Egypt’s vulnerability to spillover from Gaza requires considering Cairo’s other foreign policy challenges too. The Gaza war’s spread into the Red Sea has harmed Egypt’s economy in the form of lost Suez Canal revenue with ships rerouting to avoid the body of water altogether. Additionally, Rafah isn’t the only border security crisis concerning Egyptian officials.
Cairo's Diplomatic Efforts
Since October, Egyptian diplomacy has been key to efforts aimed at implementing a ceasefire, negotiating hostage-prisoner swaps, and delivering Gaza humanitarian assistance. As a result, the Biden administration perceives Egypt to be more indispensable than ever.
US-Egypt Relations
The White House understands Cairo’s concerns and Biden’s public position is that Israel should not wage a full-scale assault on Rafah without ensuring the safety of Palestinians sheltering there. But Egypt continues to be frustrated with Biden’s refusal to deploy Washington's leverage to pressure Israel into actually changing its conduct on the ground.
Red Sea Security Crisis
Another important aspect of U.S.-Egypt relations amid the Gaza war and its regionalization is the Red Sea security crisis. Egypt has faced economic setbacks due to the Red Sea security crisis, impacting Suez Canal revenue.
U.S.-Egypt Alliance
Ultimately, the U.S.-Egypt alliance remains strong. But Cairo must approach this relationship with more caution given Washington’s role in Gaza’s destruction and its growing isolation in the Arab-Islamic world.
