AI is a Fad and Programming is Dead
There are two prevailing viewpoints regarding the future of programming that are being spread on social media. On one hand, some people claim that programming as a career is essentially dead. They believe that it will only be a matter of years before humans writing code are made obsolete. On the other hand, there are those who think that LLMs like ChatGPT and LLaMA are nothing more than party tricks, and provide minimal value to those building software. However, the reality is far more nuanced than just these two points.
AI has improved drastically over the past year or so. We have gone from basic sketches and drawings to full-fledged generated movies based on images, text, and speech. OpenAI's GPT model has shown incredible promise in generating text and code. There are AutoGPT experiments where talented developers have been running processes that spawn LLM entities and have them loop over and perform actions to finish complex multi-step assignments.
Historically, technological advancements have occurred based on successive S-curves. A technology will slowly advance and then rapidly take off, before slowly plateauing out for a while. A new iteration happens that starts the same cycle over again, but at an overall higher level. It's not a bold assumption that AI might follow the same path (at least for now), so the question becomes "where are we on the current curve?".
While the AI-generated content is advancing at an exponential pace, there is still room for improvement. More AI-generated content like video, speech, and code is being produced, but more people can recognize it for its uncanny-valley-ness. As with most projects, the missing 10% will take 90% of the time and effort to perfect. It is uncertain how long it will take for the next curve to begin, but it is clear that we are almost at the plateau of the current curve.
With tools like ChatGPT, GitHub Copilot, and Copilot X, we have seen a drastic improvement and adaptation of models like OpenAI's GPT in the coding world. These AI tools are just the next logical step in the same improvement process, and they are not replacing programmers. They are tools in a utility belt that allow programmers to work better.
A programmer's goal is to take a concept, an idea, or a workflow in a language that they can understand and translate that to a language that a computer can understand. This programming language is designed to prevent ambiguous statements and deal in pure logic. AI tools enable programmers to work better and faster. They can complete routine tasks much quicker, enabling them to focus on more complex problems.
Programming is not dead, nor is it dying. Instead, AI tools are simply helping developers to work better. They are the logical next step in the ever-evolving landscape of programming and software engineering.
