Decoding the Papal Conclave: Can AI Predict the Next Pope?

Published On Thu Apr 24 2025
Decoding the Papal Conclave: Can AI Predict the Next Pope?

Artificial Intelligence Predictions on the Next Pope Selection Process

As the Catholic Church mourns the passing of Pope Francis and enters the process of selecting a new pontiff, the world eagerly awaits to see who will emerge as the next leader. The selection of the next pope is known for its secrecy and unpredictability, making it a challenge even for artificial intelligence to make accurate predictions.

Insights from AI Chatbots

AFP reached out to four AI chatbots, including OpenAI's ChatGPT and billionaire Elon Musk's Grok, to gather insights on the potential frontrunners in the race for the papacy. The results from the AI chatbots were varied, showcasing the complexity of predicting such a significant event.

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Grok and Google's Gemini highlighted Italian Cardinal Pietro Parolin as a strong contender for the position, considering his role as the Vatican's number two during Pope Francis's tenure. On the other hand, ChatGPT leaned towards Cardinal Luis Antonio Tagle, emphasizing his alignment with Pope Francis's values and priorities.

The Challenge of Predicting the Next Pope

Despite their analysis, the AI chatbots acknowledged the difficulty of accurately predicting the next pope. Factors such as the cardinals' beliefs, age, experience, and the confidential nature of the selection process play a significant role in determining the outcome, surpassing the capabilities of traditional data analysis.

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ChatGPT clarified that its suggestions were not definitive predictions but rather considerations based on existing trends and influences within the Church. Similarly, Gemini highlighted the limitations of AI in foreseeing such a monumental decision. French company Mistral AI opted out of making predictions altogether, emphasizing the importance of relying on credible news sources for accurate information.

Ultimately, the selection of the next pope remains a mystery, with both human experts and AI technologies acknowledging the intricacies and uncertainties surrounding this ancient tradition.