AI predicts the 2025 Oscars, and it's good news for 'Joker' stars ...
Gold Derby has been predicting the Oscars (and other Hollywood races) for more than two decades now. But how do our current Academy Awards predictions compare to those made by a new player in the game — artificial intelligence?
On Nov. 16, we asked Gemini, Google’s new AI, to predict the nominations in six categories for the 2025 Oscars: picture, director, lead actor, lead actress, supporting actor, and supporting actress. You can see those results below. For the uninitiated, Gemini is a chatbot “that uses machine learning and natural language processing to provide human-like responses to text, image, and audio prompts.”
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Comparatively, Gold Derby’s Oscar predictions are derived from the combined forecasts of experts, editors, top 24 users, and the mass of users who make up our biggest predictions bloc.
AI predictions for Best Picture:
The AI predicts the following movies for Best Picture at the 2025 Oscars:
- “Dune: Part Two”
- “Gladiator II”
- “Conclave”
- “Anora”
- “Emilia Pérez”
AI predictions for Best Director:
The AI predicts the following directors for Best Director at the 2025 Oscars:
- Denis Villeneuve (“Dune: Part Two”)
- Sean Baker (“Anora”)
- Jacques Audiard (“Emilia Pérez”)
- Brady Corbet (“The Brutalist”)
- Coraline Fargeat (“The Substance”)
AI predictions for Best Actor:
The AI predicts the following actors for Best Actor at the 2025 Oscars:
- Timothée Chalamet (“Dune: Part Two”)
- Colman Domingo (“Sing Sing”)
- John David Washington (“The Piano Lesson”)
- Joaquin Phoenix (“Joker: Folie à Deux”)
- Sebastian Stan (“The Apprentice”)
AI predictions for Best Actress:
The AI predicts the following actresses for Best Actress at the 2025 Oscars:
- Angelina Jolie (“Maria”)
- Lady Gaga (“Joker: Folie à Deux”)
- Saoirse Ronan (“Blitz”)
- Amy Adams (“Nightbitch”)
- Mikey Madison (“Anora”)
AI predictions for Best Supporting Actor:
The AI predicts the following actors for Best Supporting Actor at the 2025 Oscars:
- Guy Pearce (“The Brutalist”)
- Yura Borisov (“Anora”)
- Kieran Culkin (“A Real Pain”)
- Denzel Washington (“Gladiator II”)
- Clarence Maclin (“Sing Sing”)
AI predictions for Best Supporting Actress:
The AI predicts the following actresses for Best Supporting Actress at the 2025 Oscars:
- Zoe Saldaña (“Emilia Pérez”)
- Danielle Deadwyler (“The Piano Lesson”)
- Isabella Rossellini (“Conclave”)
- Felicity Jones (“The Brutalist”)
- Saoirse Ronan (“Blitz”)
We'll continue to update AI’s predictions throughout the campaign, and we’ll see who's the most accurate when the envelopes are opened on March 2, 2025.
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