New Research: Google Search Grew 20%+ in 2024; receives ~373X ...
For years, two questions have dominated both marketers’ interest and the media’s coverage of Google Search:
I’ve seen wild speculation that Google’s market share is down 5-10% since ChatGPT’s launch, and heard anecdotes across my feeds from people claiming that they never use Google and have entirely switched to AI tools. But, there’s been no comprehensive, well-structured analysis to show the AI tools’ share of search, nor any data to back up the claims of Google’s supposed search decline.
Today, thanks to our partners at Datos (a Semrush company) and this latest research we’ve done together, I believe we can put these questions to rest.
Methodology and Findings
In order, here’s how we’ll do it: Using the same methodology we covered in last week’s research (Datos’ US panel of active desktop devices that visited Google at least once in a month in 2023 vs. 2024), we compared the average number of searches per searcher between the two years for all of Google (the first set of columns) and for each of the major, individual verticals (Images, News, Shopping, etc.).
In a single year and for a mature product 21.64% growth in searches across Google is remarkable. It also fits with what their CEO said publicly about the introduction of AI Overviews in 2024: “Based on our testing, we are encouraged that we are seeing an increase in search usage among people who use the new AI overviews as well as increased user satisfaction with the results.”
Sure as heck looks like it did! So much for the fear that AI answers in Google would reduce the number of searches people performed; in fact the exact opposite appears to be true. Unfortunately, AI answers do seem to kill clickthrough rates: Seer Interactive’s study showed that organic results suffered a 70% drop in CTR and paid dropped 12%. Another study from AWR shows a similarly precipitous drop.
AI Tools Comparison
Most everyone has heard of ChatGPT, but Datos released research in January identifying the other major AI tool vendors of 2024: Perplexity, Claude, Copilot, and Gemini. The usage of these AI tools is graphed over time below:
My two big takeaways: The others are so small (and Gemini is part of Google) that their numbers on any visualization would appear as insignificant slivers, so far. Perhaps as the space evolves, if one or several grow many times their current sizes, it will make sense to include them.
Search Comparison
That settled, let’s look at searches on Google vs. ChatGPT. Rarely do we get so clear and clean a set of numbers from multiple independent sources, and rarely do I feel as confident giving a definitive comparison. In 2024: In 2024 Google received ~373 times as many searches as ChatGPT.
The AI tool’s search volume is on a scale similar to Pinterest (~20M/day) and ~one third the size of the ~108M searches/day on DuckDuckGo, though ChatGPT is growing at a faster rate.
Market Share Analysis
These numbers let us build some high veracity market share comparison charts: And for those who still love pie charts:
Conclusion
I don’t want to come across as a denier of the power of AI tools, nor a skeptic of their ability to cross the chasm and reach a much larger search audience in the years ahead. But, I’m also a marketer who cares about putting effort into being present where people actually pay attention, regardless of any media hype cycles. Numbers like these may not be 100% precise, but they match public statements, are (in most cases) verifiable through multiple data sources, and show the clearest picture to date of traditional search market share captured by ChatGPT and Google.
If you’re encouraging your marketing team or agency to get you into the AI tools as a way to future-proof your efforts, don’t let these numbers sway you. But if you’re recklessly investing in AI tool visibility because of media hype, you might use this report as an opportunity to reconsider whether your budget and effort matches where your customers pay attention.
